Panadería Pulido 2–1 Villa Santa Brígida

Panadería Pulido

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Villa Santa Brígida

9/6/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 1Campo de Futbol Vega de San Mateo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Panadería Pulido51%

×Draw26%

Villa Santa Brígida23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panadería PulidoExpected goals in this matchVilla Santa Brígida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.95

Panadería Pulido

1.54

Villa Santa Brígida

0.95

Panadería Pulido creates 62% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 109 away

1.57

creates per match

0.96

0.93

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Panadería Pulido

1.57

Villa Santa Brígida

0.96

allows per match

Panadería Pulido

0.93

Villa Santa Brígida

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panadería Pulido+0.00on par

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panadería Pulido ↓

Villa Santa Brígida →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Panadería Pulido or draw

77%

Panadería Pulido or Villa Santa Brígida

74%

Draw or Villa Santa Brígida

49%

Winning margin

Panadería Pulido wins by 2+

26%

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

Team goals

Panadería Pulido 1+ goals

79%

Panadería Pulido 2+ goals

45%

Panadería Pulido 3+ goals

20%

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

61%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

25%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)

69%

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Panadería Pulido at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

Villa Santa Brígida away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Panadería Pulido attack 1.57 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.54

Villa Santa Brígida attack 0.96 + Panadería Pulido defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Panadería Pulido scores more

51%

level

26%

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

23%

Panadería Pulido at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Panadería Pulido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panadería Pulido vs Villa Santa Brígida

Panadería Pulido beat Villa Santa Brígida 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Vega de San Mateo in Vega de San Mateo.

Panadería Pulido vs Villa Santa Brígida — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Panadería Pulido vs Villa Santa Brígida