Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Panadería Pulido vs Unión Sur Yaiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Panadería Pulido
Panadería Pulido
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unión Sur Yaiza
Unión Sur Yaiza
5/10/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 34Campo de Futbol Vega de San Mateo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Panadería Pulido50%
×Draw27%
Unión Sur Yaiza24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panadería Pulido
1.45
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.91

Panadería Pulido creates 59% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 65 away

creates per match

Panadería Pulido
1.57
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.88

allows per match

Panadería Pulido
0.93
Unión Sur Yaiza
1.32

finishing

Panadería Pulido+0.00on par
Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panadería Pulido ↓

Unión Sur Yaiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Panadería Pulido or draw
76%
Panadería Pulido or Unión Sur Yaiza
73%
Draw or Unión Sur Yaiza
50%

Winning margin

Panadería Pulido wins by 2+
25%
Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Panadería Pulido 1+ goals
77%
Panadería Pulido 2+ goals
42%
Panadería Pulido 3+ goals
18%
Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals
60%
Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals
23%
Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)
68%
Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panadería Pulido at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

Unión Sur Yaiza away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panadería Pulido attack 1.57 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 0.88 + Panadería Pulido defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Panadería Pulido scores more
50%
level
27%
Unión Sur Yaiza scores more
24%

Panadería Pulido at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Panadería Pulido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Panadería Pulido 0–0 Unión Sur Yaiza

Panadería Pulido and Unión Sur Yaiza drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Vega de San Mateo in Vega de San Mateo.