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Panadería Pulido vs Las Palmas II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Panadería Pulido
Panadería Pulido
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
12/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 14Campo de Futbol Vega de San Mateo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Panadería Pulido38%
×Draw27%
Las Palmas II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panadería Pulido
1.25
Las Palmas II
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 49 away

creates per match

Panadería Pulido
1.57
Las Palmas II
1.45

allows per match

Panadería Pulido
0.93
Las Palmas II
0.92

finishing

Panadería Pulido+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panadería Pulido ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Panadería Pulido or draw
65%
Panadería Pulido or Las Palmas II
73%
Draw or Las Palmas II
62%

Winning margin

Panadería Pulido wins by 2+
16%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Panadería Pulido 1+ goals
71%
Panadería Pulido 2+ goals
36%
Panadería Pulido 3+ goals
13%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
70%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
33%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)
52%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panadería Pulido at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panadería Pulido attack 1.57 + Las Palmas II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.25

Las Palmas II attack 1.45 + Panadería Pulido defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Panadería Pulido scores more
38%
level
27%
Las Palmas II scores more
35%

Panadería Pulido at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Panadería Pulido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panadería Pulido vs Las Palmas II

Panadería Pulido and Las Palmas II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 6, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol Vega de San Mateo in Vega de San Mateo.