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Pampow vs Strausberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Pampow
Pampow
CANC
12:00
Strausberg
Strausberg
2/21/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 20Sportplatz Pampow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pampow53%
×Draw22%
Strausberg25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pampow
1.94
Strausberg
1.25

Pampow creates 55% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 4 away

creates per match

Pampow
1.63
Strausberg
0.50

allows per match

Pampow
2.00
Strausberg
2.25

finishing

Pampow+0.00on par
Strausberg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pampow ↓

Strausberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pampow or draw
75%
Pampow or Strausberg
78%
Draw or Strausberg
47%

Winning margin

Pampow wins by 2+
31%
Strausberg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pampow 1+ goals
86%
Pampow 2+ goals
58%
Pampow 3+ goals
30%
Strausberg 1+ goals
71%
Strausberg 2+ goals
36%
Strausberg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pampow (draw refunded)
68%
Strausberg (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pampow at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.00 · 35 matches

Strausberg away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pampow attack 1.63 + Strausberg defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.94

Strausberg attack 0.50 + Pampow defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pampow scores more
53%
level
22%
Strausberg scores more
25%

Pampow at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pampow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pampow vs Strausberg — Match Preview

Pampow face Strausberg on February 21, 2021 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Pampow host Strausberg at Sportplatz Pampow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.