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Pampow vs BSC Süd 05 — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Pampow
Pampow
CANC
12:00
BSC Süd 05
BSC Süd 05
12/19/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 16Sportplatz Pampow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Pampow47%
×Draw23%
BSC Süd 0530%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pampow
1.79
BSC Süd 05
1.38

Pampow creates 30% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 21 away

creates per match

Pampow
1.63
BSC Süd 05
0.76

allows per match

Pampow
2.00
BSC Süd 05
1.95

finishing

Pampow+0.00on par
BSC Süd 05+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pampow ↓

BSC Süd 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pampow or draw
70%
Pampow or BSC Süd 05
77%
Draw or BSC Süd 05
53%

Winning margin

Pampow wins by 2+
26%
BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pampow 1+ goals
83%
Pampow 2+ goals
53%
Pampow 3+ goals
26%
BSC Süd 05 1+ goals
75%
BSC Süd 05 2+ goals
40%
BSC Süd 05 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Pampow (draw refunded)
61%
BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pampow at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.00 · 35 matches

BSC Süd 05 away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pampow attack 1.63 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.76 + Pampow defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pampow scores more
47%
level
23%
BSC Süd 05 scores more
30%

Pampow at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pampow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pampow face BSC Süd 05 (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord returns with Pampow hosting BSC Süd 05. Match starts December 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Pampow host BSC Süd 05 at Sportplatz Pampow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.