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Pamplona vs Rotxapea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Pamplona
Pamplona
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Rotxapea
Rotxapea
4/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 31Campo de Fútbol Beitikuntzea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pamplona67%
×Draw19%
Rotxapea15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pamplona
2.27
Rotxapea
0.96

Pamplona creates 136% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

creates per match

Pamplona
1.55
Rotxapea
1.06

allows per match

Pamplona
0.86
Rotxapea
3.00

finishing

Pamplona+0.00on par
Rotxapea+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pamplona ↓

Rotxapea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Pamplona or draw
85%
Pamplona or Rotxapea
81%
Draw or Rotxapea
33%

Winning margin

Pamplona wins by 2+
43%
Rotxapea wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pamplona 1+ goals
90%
Pamplona 2+ goals
66%
Pamplona 3+ goals
39%
Rotxapea 1+ goals
62%
Rotxapea 2+ goals
25%
Rotxapea 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pamplona (draw refunded)
82%
Rotxapea (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pamplona at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 109 matches

Rotxapea away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pamplona attack 1.55 + Rotxapea defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Rotxapea attack 1.06 + Pamplona defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Pamplona scores more
67%
level
19%
Rotxapea scores more
15%

Pamplona at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Pamplona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Pamplona 2–2 Rotxapea

Pamplona and Rotxapea drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Beitikuntzea in Lizasoáin.