Pamplona 3–0 Peña Azagresa: Result & Stats

Pamplona

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Peña Azagresa

10/5/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 7Campo de Fútbol Beitikuntzea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Pamplona60%

×Draw21%

Peña Azagresa18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PamplonaExpected goals in this matchPeña Azagresa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.00

Pamplona

1.99

Peña Azagresa

1.00

Pamplona creates 99% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 28 away

1.55

creates per match

1.14

0.86

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Pamplona

1.55

Peña Azagresa

1.14

allows per match

Pamplona

0.86

Peña Azagresa

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pamplona+0.00on par

Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pamplona ↓

Peña Azagresa →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Pamplona or draw

82%

Pamplona or Peña Azagresa

79%

Draw or Peña Azagresa

40%

Winning margin

Pamplona wins by 2+

36%

Peña Azagresa wins by 2+

Team goals

Pamplona 1+ goals

86%

Pamplona 2+ goals

59%

Pamplona 3+ goals

32%

Peña Azagresa 1+ goals

63%

Peña Azagresa 2+ goals

26%

Peña Azagresa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pamplona (draw refunded)

77%

Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pamplona at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 109 matches

Peña Azagresa away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pamplona attack 1.55 + Peña Azagresa defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.99

Peña Azagresa attack 1.14 + Pamplona defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pamplona scores more

60%

level

21%

Peña Azagresa scores more

18%

Pamplona at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pamplona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff