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Pamplona vs Gares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Pamplona
Pamplona
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gares
Gares
10/31/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 9Campo de Fútbol Beitikuntzea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Pamplona68%
×Draw20%
Gares12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pamplona
2.00
Gares
0.68

Pamplona creates 194% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 32 away

creates per match

Pamplona
1.55
Gares
0.50

allows per match

Pamplona
0.86
Gares
2.44

finishing

Pamplona+0.00on par
Gares+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pamplona ↓

Gares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pamplona or draw
88%
Pamplona or Gares
80%
Draw or Gares
32%

Winning margin

Pamplona wins by 2+
43%
Gares wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Pamplona 1+ goals
86%
Pamplona 2+ goals
59%
Pamplona 3+ goals
32%
Gares 1+ goals
49%
Gares 2+ goals
15%
Gares 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Pamplona (draw refunded)
85%
Gares (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pamplona at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 109 matches

Gares away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.44 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pamplona attack 1.55 + Gares defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.00

Gares attack 0.50 + Pamplona defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Pamplona scores more
68%
level
20%
Gares scores more
12%

Pamplona at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Pamplona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Pamplona 3–1 Gares

Pamplona beat Gares 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on October 31, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Beitikuntzea in Lizasoáin.