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Pamplona vs Fontellas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Pamplona
Pamplona
FT
5 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fontellas
Fontellas
10/31/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 11Campo de Fútbol Beitikuntzea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Pamplona74%
×Draw17%
Fontellas10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pamplona
2.35
Fontellas
0.71

Pamplona creates 231% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 28 away

creates per match

Pamplona
1.55
Fontellas
0.57

allows per match

Pamplona
0.86
Fontellas
3.14

finishing

Pamplona+0.00on par
Fontellas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pamplona ↓

Fontellas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pamplona or draw
90%
Pamplona or Fontellas
83%
Draw or Fontellas
26%

Winning margin

Pamplona wins by 2+
50%
Fontellas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Pamplona 1+ goals
90%
Pamplona 2+ goals
68%
Pamplona 3+ goals
41%
Fontellas 1+ goals
51%
Fontellas 2+ goals
16%
Fontellas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pamplona (draw refunded)
89%
Fontellas (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pamplona at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 109 matches

Fontellas away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pamplona attack 1.55 + Fontellas defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.35

Fontellas attack 0.57 + Pamplona defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Pamplona scores more
74%
level
17%
Fontellas scores more
10%

Pamplona at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Pamplona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pamplona vs Fontellas

Pamplona beat Fontellas 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on October 31, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Beitikuntzea in Lizasoáin.