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Pamplona vs Beti Kozkor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Pamplona
Pamplona
CANC
00:00
Beti Kozkor
Beti Kozkor
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 31Campo de Fútbol Beitikuntzea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Pamplona52%
×Draw26%
Beti Kozkor23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pamplona
1.55
Beti Kozkor
0.93

Pamplona creates 67% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 93 away

creates per match

Pamplona
1.55
Beti Kozkor
1.00

allows per match

Pamplona
0.86
Beti Kozkor
1.55

finishing

Pamplona+0.00on par
Beti Kozkor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pamplona ↓

Beti Kozkor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pamplona or draw
77%
Pamplona or Beti Kozkor
74%
Draw or Beti Kozkor
48%

Winning margin

Pamplona wins by 2+
27%
Beti Kozkor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pamplona 1+ goals
79%
Pamplona 2+ goals
46%
Pamplona 3+ goals
20%
Beti Kozkor 1+ goals
61%
Beti Kozkor 2+ goals
24%
Beti Kozkor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pamplona (draw refunded)
70%
Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pamplona at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 109 matches

Beti Kozkor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pamplona attack 1.55 + Beti Kozkor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.55

Beti Kozkor attack 1.00 + Pamplona defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pamplona scores more
52%
level
26%
Beti Kozkor scores more
23%

Pamplona at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pamplona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Pamplona host Beti Kozkor

March 29, 2020: Pamplona take on Beti Kozkor in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Pamplona host Beti Kozkor at Campo de Fútbol Beitikuntzea.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.