Beti Kozkor 1–1 Pamplona: Result & Stats

Beti Kozkor

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pamplona

3/8/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 25Complejo Deportivo Plazaola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Beti Kozkor42%

×Draw28%

Pamplona30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beti KozkorExpected goals in this matchPamplona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.03

Beti Kozkor

1.27

Pamplona

1.03

Beti Kozkor creates 23% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 110 away

1.35

creates per match

1.15

0.92

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Beti Kozkor

1.35

Pamplona

1.15

allows per match

Beti Kozkor

0.92

Pamplona

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beti Kozkor+0.00on par

Pamplona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Kozkor ↓

Pamplona →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Beti Kozkor or draw

70%

Beti Kozkor or Pamplona

72%

Draw or Pamplona

58%

Winning margin

Beti Kozkor wins by 2+

19%

Pamplona wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Beti Kozkor 1+ goals

72%

Beti Kozkor 2+ goals

36%

Beti Kozkor 3+ goals

14%

Pamplona 1+ goals

64%

Pamplona 2+ goals

28%

Pamplona 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)

58%

Pamplona (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beti Kozkor at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

Pamplona away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.19 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beti Kozkor attack 1.35 + Pamplona defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Pamplona attack 1.15 + Beti Kozkor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Beti Kozkor scores more

42%

level

28%

Pamplona scores more

30%

Beti Kozkor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beti Kozkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff