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Pamplona vs Atlético Artajonés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Pamplona
Pamplona
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Artajonés
Atlético Artajonés
11/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 9Campo de Fútbol Beitikuntzea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pamplona62%
×Draw23%
Atlético Artajonés16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pamplona
1.79
Atlético Artajonés
0.77

Pamplona creates 132% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pamplona
1.55
Atlético Artajonés
0.68

allows per match

Pamplona
0.86
Atlético Artajonés
2.03

finishing

Pamplona+0.00on par
Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pamplona ↓

Atlético Artajonés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pamplona or draw
84%
Pamplona or Atlético Artajonés
77%
Draw or Atlético Artajonés
38%

Winning margin

Pamplona wins by 2+
36%
Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pamplona 1+ goals
83%
Pamplona 2+ goals
53%
Pamplona 3+ goals
26%
Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals
54%
Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals
18%
Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pamplona (draw refunded)
80%
Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pamplona at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 109 matches

Atlético Artajonés away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pamplona attack 1.55 + Atlético Artajonés defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.79

Atlético Artajonés attack 0.68 + Pamplona defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Pamplona scores more
62%
level
23%
Atlético Artajonés scores more
16%

Pamplona at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Pamplona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pamplona vs Atlético Artajonés

Pamplona beat Atlético Artajonés 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Beitikuntzea in Lizasoáin.