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Pamba Jiji vs JKT Tanzania — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Pamba Jiji
Pamba Jiji
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
Unknown 4'
Unknown 84', 8'
6/27/2026Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 29CCM Kirumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Pamba Jiji48%
×Draw29%
JKT Tanzania23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pamba Jiji
1.25
JKT Tanzania
0.77

Pamba Jiji creates 62% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Pamba Jiji
1.40
JKT Tanzania
0.64

allows per match

Pamba Jiji
0.90
JKT Tanzania
1.09

finishing

Pamba Jiji+0.00on par
JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pamba Jiji ↓

JKT Tanzania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Pamba Jiji or draw
77%
Pamba Jiji or JKT Tanzania
71%
Draw or JKT Tanzania
52%

Winning margin

Pamba Jiji wins by 2+
22%
JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pamba Jiji 1+ goals
71%
Pamba Jiji 2+ goals
36%
Pamba Jiji 3+ goals
13%
JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
54%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
18%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pamba Jiji (draw refunded)
68%
JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pamba Jiji at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

JKT Tanzania away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pamba Jiji attack 1.40 + JKT Tanzania defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

JKT Tanzania attack 0.64 + Pamba Jiji defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pamba Jiji scores more
48%
level
29%
JKT Tanzania scores more
23%

Pamba Jiji at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pamba Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
8'
76'
84'

Possession

52%Pamba

Shots

1Pamba

Statistics

PambaJKT
Overview
52%Possession48%
1Total Shots1
1Corners3
Shots
1Total Shots1
1On Target1
0Off Target0
0Blocked0
Passing
52%Possession48%
Discipline
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Ligi kuu Bara: Pamba Jiji 1–2 JKT Tanzania

JKT Tanzania beat Pamba Jiji 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 27, 2026.

Goals: ? (4', 8', 84').

Pamba Jiji controlled possession (52%) and registered 1 shots to 1.

The match was played at CCM Kirumba Stadium in Mwanza.