Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Paloma vs Todesfelde — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Paloma
Paloma
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Todesfelde
Todesfelde
L. Inkuletz 88', 59'
M. Niemann 52'
M. Pajonk 67', 58' (pen)
M. Liebert 6'
1/25/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Paloma42%
×Draw21%
Todesfelde37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paloma
2.00
Todesfelde
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Paloma
1.25
Todesfelde
1.50

allows per match

Paloma
2.25
Todesfelde
2.75

finishing

Paloma+0.00on par
Todesfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paloma ↓

Todesfelde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Paloma or draw
63%
Paloma or Todesfelde
79%
Draw or Todesfelde
58%

Winning margin

Paloma wins by 2+
23%
Todesfelde wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Paloma 1+ goals
86%
Paloma 2+ goals
59%
Paloma 3+ goals
32%
Todesfelde 1+ goals
85%
Todesfelde 2+ goals
56%
Todesfelde 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Paloma (draw refunded)
53%
Todesfelde (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paloma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Todesfelde away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paloma attack 1.25 + Todesfelde defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.00

Todesfelde attack 1.50 + Paloma defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Paloma scores more
42%
level
21%
Todesfelde scores more
37%

Paloma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paloma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
M. Liebert
52'
M. Niemann
58'
M. PajonkPenalty
59'
L. Inkuletz
67'
M. Pajonk
88'
L. Inkuletz
Paloma
Todesfelde
M. Krausz
Manager: M. Krausz
B. Sörensen
Manager: B. Sörensen

Match Recap: Paloma vs Todesfelde

Paloma and Todesfelde drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 25, 2025.

Goals: M. Liebert (6'), M. Niemann (52'), M. Pajonk (58' pen, 67'), L. Inkuletz (59', 88').

The match was played at Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz in Hamburg.