Paloma 3–1 Eimsbütteler TV: Result & Stats

Paloma

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Eimsbütteler TV

S. Olayisoye 81' (OG)

M. Niemann 38'

T. Wohlers 31'

D. Akyol 18'

4/23/2023

Oberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 36Jonny Rehbein Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Paloma36%

×Draw21%

Eimsbütteler TV42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalomaExpected goals in this matchEimsbütteler TV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

2.00

Paloma

1.85

Eimsbütteler TV

2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 11 away

1.98

creates per match

2.27

1.72

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Paloma

1.98

Eimsbütteler TV

2.27

allows per match

Paloma

1.72

Eimsbütteler TV

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paloma+0.00on par

Eimsbütteler TV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paloma ↓

Eimsbütteler TV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Paloma or draw

58%

Paloma or Eimsbütteler TV

79%

Draw or Eimsbütteler TV

64%

Winning margin

Paloma wins by 2+

19%

Eimsbütteler TV wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Paloma 1+ goals

84%

Paloma 2+ goals

55%

Paloma 3+ goals

28%

Eimsbütteler TV 1+ goals

86%

Eimsbütteler TV 2+ goals

59%

Eimsbütteler TV 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Paloma (draw refunded)

46%

Eimsbütteler TV (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paloma at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.72 · 57 matches

Eimsbütteler TV away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paloma attack 1.98 + Eimsbütteler TV defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.85

Eimsbütteler TV attack 2.27 + Paloma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Paloma scores more

36%

level

21%

Eimsbütteler TV scores more

42%

Eimsbütteler TV at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Eimsbütteler TV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

D. Akyol

31'

T. Wohlers

38'

M. Niemann

81'

S. OlayisoyeOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff