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Eimsbütteler TV vs Paloma — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026

Eimsbütteler TV
Eimsbütteler TV
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Paloma
Paloma
B. Karim 44'
P. Scobel 10'
H. Sabah 9'
8/9/2024Oberliga - HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 2ETV-Sportzentrum Hoheluft

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Eimsbütteler TV53%
×Draw20%
Paloma27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eimsbütteler TV
2.23
Paloma
1.56

Eimsbütteler TV creates 43% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 57 away

creates per match

Eimsbütteler TV
2.55
Paloma
1.86

allows per match

Eimsbütteler TV
1.27
Paloma
1.91

finishing

Eimsbütteler TV+0.00on par
Paloma+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eimsbütteler TV ↓

Paloma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Eimsbütteler TV or draw
73%
Eimsbütteler TV or Paloma
80%
Draw or Paloma
47%

Winning margin

Eimsbütteler TV wins by 2+
32%
Paloma wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Eimsbütteler TV 1+ goals
89%
Eimsbütteler TV 2+ goals
65%
Eimsbütteler TV 3+ goals
38%
Paloma 1+ goals
79%
Paloma 2+ goals
46%
Paloma 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Eimsbütteler TV (draw refunded)
66%
Paloma (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eimsbütteler TV at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Paloma away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.91 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eimsbütteler TV attack 2.55 + Paloma defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.23

Paloma attack 1.86 + Eimsbütteler TV defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Eimsbütteler TV scores more
53%
level
20%
Paloma scores more
27%

Eimsbütteler TV at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Eimsbütteler TV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
H. Sabah
10'
P. Scobel
44'
B. Karim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hamburg: Eimsbütteler TV 2–1 Paloma

Eimsbütteler TV beat Paloma 2-1 in Oberliga - Hamburg on August 9, 2024.

Goals: H. Sabah (9'), P. Scobel (10'), B. Karim (44').

The match was played at ETV-Sportzentrum Hoheluft in Hamburg.