Palmeiras W 3–1 Real Brasília W: Result & Stats

Palmeiras W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Real Brasília W

5/1/2024

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Dr. Jayme Pinheiro de Ulhôa Cintra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Palmeiras W67%

×Draw18%

Real Brasília W14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palmeiras WExpected goals in this matchReal Brasília W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.98

Palmeiras W

2.33

Real Brasília W

0.98

Palmeiras W creates 138% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 40 away

2.59

creates per match

0.82

1.14

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Palmeiras W

2.59

Real Brasília W

0.82

allows per match

Palmeiras W

1.14

Real Brasília W

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palmeiras W+0.00on par

Real Brasília W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras W ↓

Real Brasília W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Palmeiras W or draw

86%

Palmeiras W or Real Brasília W

82%

Draw or Real Brasília W

33%

Winning margin

Palmeiras W wins by 2+

44%

Real Brasília W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Palmeiras W 1+ goals

90%

Palmeiras W 2+ goals

67%

Palmeiras W 3+ goals

41%

Real Brasília W 1+ goals

62%

Real Brasília W 2+ goals

26%

Real Brasília W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras W (draw refunded)

82%

Real Brasília W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras W at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

Real Brasília W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras W attack 2.59 + Real Brasília W defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.33

Real Brasília W attack 0.82 + Palmeiras W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Palmeiras W scores more

67%

level

18%

Real Brasília W scores more

14%

Palmeiras W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Palmeiras W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff