Palmeiras W 8–0 Napoli W: Result & Stats

Palmeiras W

FT

8 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Napoli W

6/20/2021

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 14Allianz Parque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Palmeiras W84%

×Draw10%

Napoli W6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palmeiras WExpected goals in this matchNapoli W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.36

0.82

Palmeiras W

3.36

Napoli W

0.82

Palmeiras W creates 310% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 8 away

2.59

creates per match

0.50

1.14

allows per match

4.13

creates per match

Palmeiras W

2.59

Napoli W

0.50

allows per match

Palmeiras W

1.14

Napoli W

4.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palmeiras W+0.00on par

Napoli W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras W ↓

Napoli W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–14%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Palmeiras W or draw

94%

Palmeiras W or Napoli W

90%

Draw or Napoli W

16%

Winning margin

Palmeiras W wins by 2+

67%

Napoli W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Palmeiras W 1+ goals

96%

Palmeiras W 2+ goals

84%

Palmeiras W 3+ goals

63%

Napoli W 1+ goals

56%

Napoli W 2+ goals

20%

Napoli W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras W (draw refunded)

94%

Napoli W (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras W at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

Napoli W away — creates 0.50, concedes 4.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras W attack 2.59 + Napoli W defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 3.36

Napoli W attack 0.50 + Palmeiras W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Palmeiras W scores more

84%

level

10%

Napoli W scores more

6%

Palmeiras W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Palmeiras W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff