Palmeiras W 2–1 Atlético Mineiro W: Result & Stats

Palmeiras W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Mineiro W

Byanca Brasil 83'

Bia Zaneratto 16'

A. Barroso 89' (OG)

3/5/2022

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 1Allianz Parque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Palmeiras W65%

×Draw19%

Atlético Mineiro W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palmeiras WExpected goals in this matchAtlético Mineiro W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.06

Palmeiras W

2.33

Atlético Mineiro W

1.06

Palmeiras W creates 120% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 30 away

2.62

creates per match

1.03

1.09

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Palmeiras W

2.62

Atlético Mineiro W

1.03

allows per match

Palmeiras W

1.09

Atlético Mineiro W

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palmeiras W+0.00on par

Atlético Mineiro W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras W ↓

Atlético Mineiro W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Palmeiras W or draw

84%

Palmeiras W or Atlético Mineiro W

81%

Draw or Atlético Mineiro W

35%

Winning margin

Palmeiras W wins by 2+

43%

Atlético Mineiro W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Palmeiras W 1+ goals

90%

Palmeiras W 2+ goals

67%

Palmeiras W 3+ goals

41%

Atlético Mineiro W 1+ goals

65%

Atlético Mineiro W 2+ goals

29%

Atlético Mineiro W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras W (draw refunded)

80%

Atlético Mineiro W (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras W at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Atlético Mineiro W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras W attack 2.62 + Atlético Mineiro W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.33

Atlético Mineiro W attack 1.03 + Palmeiras W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Palmeiras W scores more

65%

level

19%

Atlético Mineiro W scores more

16%

Palmeiras W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Palmeiras W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Bia Zaneratto

46'

Nathane← Lei

62'

Iara← Y. Cuesta

62'

Jayanne← L. Gómez

71'

Byanca Brasil← Andressinha

71'

Katrine← Camila

77'

Marta Edyth← K. Bermúdez

80'

Patrícia Sochor← Chú

80'

Rafaela← Soraya Franca

83'

Byanca Brasil

89'

A. BarrosoOwn goal

90+3'

Day Silva← Bruna

Palmeiras

Atlético

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🥅

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⚽

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Manager: Hofmman Túlio

71'▲Byanca Brasil←▼Andressinha

71'▲Katrine←▼Camila

80'▲Patrícia Sochor←▼Chú

90+3'▲Day Silva←▼Bruna

Palmeiras W substitutes

BrasilKatrineSochorSilvaAmandaClaraAwannyBaianaCarolineOttiliaPryscila

Manager: Lindsay Camila

46'▲Nathane←▼Lei

62'▲Iara←▼Y. Cuesta

62'▲Jayanne←▼L. Gómez

77'▲Marta Edyth←▼K. Bermúdez

80'▲Rafaela←▼Soraya Franca

Atlético Mineiro W substitutes

NathaneIaraJayanneEdythRafaelaCoimbraAninhaSantosVergara