Palmeiras 8–1 Independiente Petrolero

Palmeiras

FT

8 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Independiente Petrolero

Raphael Veiga 90', 86'

Rony 80'

Rafael Navarro 78', 56', 54', 47'

Zé Rafael 41'

E. Correa 6'

4/13/2022

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Allianz Parque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Palmeiras95%

×Draw4%

Independiente Petrolero1%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalmeirasExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.32

0.46

Palmeiras

4.32

Independiente Petrolero

0.46

Palmeiras creates 839% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 3 away

2.64

creates per match

0.33

0.60

allows per match

6.00

creates per match

Palmeiras

2.64

Independiente Petrolero

0.33

allows per match

Palmeiras

0.60

Independiente Petrolero

6.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palmeiras+0.00on par

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras ↓

Independiente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–12%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–014%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (14%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

65%35%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Palmeiras or draw

99%

Palmeiras or Independiente Petrolero

96%

Draw or Independiente Petrolero

5%

Winning margin

Palmeiras wins by 2+

84%

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Palmeiras 1+ goals

98%

Palmeiras 2+ goals

92%

Palmeiras 3+ goals

77%

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

37%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

8%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras (draw refunded)

99%

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.60 · 42 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 0.33, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras attack 2.64 + Independiente Petrolero defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 4.32

Independiente Petrolero attack 0.33 + Palmeiras defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Palmeiras scores more

95%

level

4%

Independiente Petrolero scores more

1%

Palmeiras at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Palmeiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Rafael Navarro

Palmeiras · F

10.0

Match Events

6'

E. Correa↳ J. Cristaldo

8'

N. Folleco

41'

Zé Rafael

42'

J. P. Rioja

47'

Rafael Navarro↳ Breno Lopes

48'

J. Cristaldo

54'

Rafael Navarro

56'

Rafael Navarro↳ Gabriel Veron

62'

L. Buter← J. Cristaldo

62'

H. Reina← E. Correa

65'

Danilo← E. Atuesta

66'

Murilo← G. Gómez

66'

Raphael Veiga← Breno Lopes

68'

J. Rivas← L. Acuña

72'

Rony← Wesley

78'

Rafael Navarro↳ Mayke

79'

Gabriel Menino← Zé Rafael

80'

Rony↳ Rafael Navarro

85'

D. Giménez← J. Alaca

85'

J. Bejarano← A. Bejarano

86'

Raphael Veiga↳ Gabriel Menino

90'

D. Gimenez

90'

Raphael Veiga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalmeirasIndependiente

Overview

77%Possession23%

28Total Shots1

13Corners0

7Fouls16

Shots

28Total Shots1

16On Target1

9Off Target0

3Blocked0

16Inside Box1

12Outside Box0

Passing

77%Possession23%

487Total Passes153

424Accurate Passes83

87%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls16

0Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Palmeiras 8–1 Independiente Petrolero

Palmeiras beat Independiente Petrolero 8-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 13, 2022.

Goals: E. Correa (6'), Zé Rafael (41'), Rafael Navarro (47', 54', 56', 78'), Rony (80'), Raphael Veiga (86', 90').

Palmeiras controlled possession (77%) and registered 28 shots to 1.

The match was played at Allianz Parque in São Paulo, São Paulo.

Palmeiras vs Independiente Petrolero — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Palmeiras 8–1 Independiente Petrolero