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Palmeiras vs America Mineiro — Serie A 2026

Palmeiras
Palmeiras
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
America Mineiro
America Mineiro
11/10/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 37Allianz Parque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Palmeiras59%
×Draw23%
America Mineiro17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras
1.75
America Mineiro
0.82

Palmeiras creates 113% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 76 away

creates per match

Palmeiras
1.91
America Mineiro
0.87

allows per match

Palmeiras
0.78
America Mineiro
1.59

finishing

Palmeiras+0.00on par
America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras ↓

America Mineiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Palmeiras or draw
83%
Palmeiras or America Mineiro
77%
Draw or America Mineiro
41%

Winning margin

Palmeiras wins by 2+
34%
America Mineiro wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Palmeiras 1+ goals
83%
Palmeiras 2+ goals
52%
Palmeiras 3+ goals
25%
America Mineiro 1+ goals
56%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
20%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras (draw refunded)
77%
America Mineiro (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.78 · 161 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras attack 1.91 + America Mineiro defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.75

America Mineiro attack 0.87 + Palmeiras defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Palmeiras scores more
59%
level
23%
America Mineiro scores more
17%

Palmeiras at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Palmeiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palmeiras vs America Mineiro

Palmeiras beat America Mineiro 2-1 in Serie A on November 10, 2022.

The match was played at Allianz Parque in São Paulo, São Paulo.