Palmeiras U20 4–1 Rio Claro SP U20: Result & Stats

Palmeiras U20

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Rio Claro SP U20

Unknown 89', 49', 7', 4'

Unknown 75'

6/21/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Academia de Futebol 2 Palmeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Palmeiras U2087%

×Draw9%

Rio Claro SP U204%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palmeiras U20Expected goals in this matchRio Claro SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.48

0.69

Palmeiras U20

3.48

Rio Claro SP U20

0.69

Palmeiras U20 creates 404% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

3.96

creates per match

0.85

0.52

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Palmeiras U20

3.96

Rio Claro SP U20

0.85

allows per match

Palmeiras U20

0.52

Rio Claro SP U20

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palmeiras U20+0.00on par

Rio Claro SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U20 ↓

Rio Claro SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–17%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Palmeiras U20 or draw

96%

Palmeiras U20 or Rio Claro SP U20

91%

Draw or Rio Claro SP U20

13%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+

71%

Rio Claro SP U20 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Palmeiras U20 1+ goals

97%

Palmeiras U20 2+ goals

85%

Palmeiras U20 3+ goals

65%

Rio Claro SP U20 1+ goals

50%

Rio Claro SP U20 2+ goals

15%

Rio Claro SP U20 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)

95%

Rio Claro SP U20 (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U20 at home — creates 3.96, concedes 0.52 · 27 matches

Rio Claro SP U20 away — creates 0.85, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U20 attack 3.96 + Rio Claro SP U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.48

Rio Claro SP U20 attack 0.85 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Palmeiras U20 scores more

87%

level

9%

Rio Claro SP U20 scores more

4%

Palmeiras U20 at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

7'

49'

75'

89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff