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Palmeiras U20 vs Portuguesa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Portuguesa U20
Portuguesa U20
Gilberto Junior 65'
Kerlon 25'
6/15/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Academia de Futebol 2 Palmeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Palmeiras U2074%
×Draw15%
Portuguesa U2011%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras U20
2.67
Portuguesa U20
0.92

Palmeiras U20 creates 190% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

creates per match

Palmeiras U20
3.96
Portuguesa U20
1.31

allows per match

Palmeiras U20
0.52
Portuguesa U20
1.38

finishing

Palmeiras U20+0.00on par
Portuguesa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U20 ↓

Portuguesa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Palmeiras U20 or draw
89%
Palmeiras U20 or Portuguesa U20
85%
Draw or Portuguesa U20
26%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
53%
Portuguesa U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
93%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
74%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
49%
Portuguesa U20 1+ goals
60%
Portuguesa U20 2+ goals
23%
Portuguesa U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
87%
Portuguesa U20 (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U20 at home — creates 3.96, concedes 0.52 · 27 matches

Portuguesa U20 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U20 attack 3.96 + Portuguesa U20 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.67

Portuguesa U20 attack 1.31 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Palmeiras U20 scores more
74%
level
15%
Portuguesa U20 scores more
11%

Palmeiras U20 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
Kerlon
65'
Gilberto Junior

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Palmeiras U20 1–1 Portuguesa U20

Palmeiras U20 and Portuguesa U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 15, 2025.

Goals: Kerlon (25'), Gilberto Junior (65').

The match was played at Academia de Futebol 2 Palmeiras in São Paulo, São Paulo.