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Palmeiras U20 vs Jabaquara U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
FT
11 – 0
HT: 6 – 0
Jabaquara U20
Jabaquara U20
Andre Lucas 89'
Juan Francisco 86', 31'
Juan Ferreira 81', 67', 51'
Sorriso 43', 39'
Halerrandrio 42'
Heittor 23', 16'
7/26/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 13Academia de Futebol 2 Palmeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Palmeiras U2085%
×Draw10%
Jabaquara U205%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras U20
3.10
Jabaquara U20
0.61

Palmeiras U20 creates 408% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 17 away

creates per match

Palmeiras U20
3.96
Jabaquara U20
0.71

allows per match

Palmeiras U20
0.52
Jabaquara U20
2.24

finishing

Palmeiras U20+0.00on par
Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 70Under: 3070%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U20 ↓

Jabaquara U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Palmeiras U20 or draw
95%
Palmeiras U20 or Jabaquara U20
90%
Draw or Jabaquara U20
15%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
67%
Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
95%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
81%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
58%
Jabaquara U20 1+ goals
46%
Jabaquara U20 2+ goals
13%
Jabaquara U20 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
95%
Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U20 at home — creates 3.96, concedes 0.52 · 27 matches

Jabaquara U20 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U20 attack 3.96 + Jabaquara U20 defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 3.10

Jabaquara U20 attack 0.71 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Palmeiras U20 scores more
85%
level
10%
Jabaquara U20 scores more
5%

Palmeiras U20 at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
Heittor
23'
Heittor
31'
Juan Francisco
39'
Sorriso
42'
Halerrandrio
43'
Sorriso
51'
Juan Ferreira
67'
Juan Ferreira
81'
Juan Ferreira
86'
Juan Francisco
89'
Andre Lucas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Palmeiras U20 11–0 Jabaquara U20

Palmeiras U20 beat Jabaquara U20 11-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 26, 2025.

Goals: Heittor (16', 23'), Juan Francisco (31', 86'), Sorriso (39', 43'), Halerrandrio (42'), Juan Ferreira (51', 67', 81'), Andre Lucas (89').

The match was played at Academia de Futebol 2 Palmeiras in São Paulo, São Paulo.