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Palmeiras U20 vs Flamengo SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Flamengo SP U20
Flamengo SP U20
J. V. Oliveira dos Santos 74', 70'
R. B. Luis G. 72'
Luighi 51'
T. Gomes De Araujo 36', 24'
Vitor Reis 29'
Edney 21'
5/18/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Academia de Futebol 2 Palmeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Palmeiras U2087%
×Draw9%
Flamengo SP U204%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras U20
3.48
Flamengo SP U20
0.67

Palmeiras U20 creates 419% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

creates per match

Palmeiras U20
3.96
Flamengo SP U20
0.81

allows per match

Palmeiras U20
0.52
Flamengo SP U20
3.00

finishing

Palmeiras U20+0.00on par
Flamengo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U20 ↓

Flamengo SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Palmeiras U20 or draw
96%
Palmeiras U20 or Flamengo SP U20
91%
Draw or Flamengo SP U20
13%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
71%
Flamengo SP U20 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
97%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
85%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
65%
Flamengo SP U20 1+ goals
49%
Flamengo SP U20 2+ goals
15%
Flamengo SP U20 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
96%
Flamengo SP U20 (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U20 at home — creates 3.96, concedes 0.52 · 27 matches

Flamengo SP U20 away — creates 0.81, concedes 3.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U20 attack 3.96 + Flamengo SP U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.48

Flamengo SP U20 attack 0.81 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Palmeiras U20 scores more
87%
level
9%
Flamengo SP U20 scores more
4%

Palmeiras U20 at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Edney
24'
T. Gomes De Araujo
29'
Vitor Reis
36'
T. Gomes De Araujo
51'
Luighi
70'
J. V. Oliveira dos Santos
72'
R. B. Luis G.
74'
J. V. Oliveira dos Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palmeiras U20 vs Flamengo SP U20

Palmeiras U20 beat Flamengo SP U20 8-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 18, 2024.

Goals: Edney (21'), T. Gomes De Araujo (24', 36'), Vitor Reis (29'), Luighi (51'), J. V. Oliveira dos Santos (70', 74'), R. B. Luis G. (72').

The match was played at Academia de Futebol 2 Palmeiras in São Paulo, São Paulo.