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Palmeiras U20 vs Água Santa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
Agner 72', 63'
Erick Bele 55'
L. Arthur 51'
Antonio 21'
Juan Francisco 8'
Pierre 44'
5/18/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Academia de Futebol 2 Palmeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Palmeiras U2079%
×Draw13%
Água Santa U208%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras U20
2.98
Água Santa U20
0.85

Palmeiras U20 creates 251% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

creates per match

Palmeiras U20
3.96
Água Santa U20
1.19

allows per match

Palmeiras U20
0.52
Água Santa U20
2.00

finishing

Palmeiras U20+0.00on par
Água Santa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 73Under: 2773%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U20 ↓

Água Santa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Palmeiras U20 or draw
92%
Palmeiras U20 or Água Santa U20
87%
Draw or Água Santa U20
21%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
60%
Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
95%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
79%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
56%
Água Santa U20 1+ goals
57%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
21%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
91%
Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U20 at home — creates 3.96, concedes 0.52 · 27 matches

Água Santa U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U20 attack 3.96 + Água Santa U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.98

Água Santa U20 attack 1.19 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Palmeiras U20 scores more
79%
level
13%
Água Santa U20 scores more
8%

Palmeiras U20 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Juan Francisco
21'
Antonio
44'
Pierre
51'
L. Arthur
55'
Erick Bele
63'
Agner
72'
Agner

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Palmeiras U20 6–1 Água Santa U20

Palmeiras U20 beat Água Santa U20 6-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 18, 2025.

Goals: Juan Francisco (8'), Antonio (21'), Pierre (44'), L. Arthur (51'), Erick Bele (55'), Agner (63', 72').

The match was played at Academia de Futebol 2 Palmeiras in São Paulo, São Paulo.