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Palmeiras U17 vs Vasco U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Palmeiras U17
Palmeiras U17
Preview
20:00
Vasco U17
Vasco U17
9/29/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 19
65%
Palmeiras U17
model favours
65%18%18%

Palmeiras U17 score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Palmeiras U1765%
×Draw18%
Vasco U1718%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras U17
2.58
Vasco U17
1.29

Palmeiras U17 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

creates per match

Palmeiras U17
3.57
Vasco U17
1.73

allows per match

Palmeiras U17
0.86
Vasco U17
1.60

finishing

Palmeiras U17+0.00on par
Vasco U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 74Under: 2674%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U17 ↓

Vasco U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Palmeiras U17 or draw
82%
Palmeiras U17 or Vasco U17
82%
Draw or Vasco U17
35%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U17 wins by 2+
43%
Vasco U17 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Palmeiras U17 1+ goals
92%
Palmeiras U17 2+ goals
72%
Palmeiras U17 3+ goals
47%
Vasco U17 1+ goals
72%
Vasco U17 2+ goals
37%
Vasco U17 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U17 (draw refunded)
79%
Vasco U17 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U17 at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Vasco U17 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U17 attack 3.57 + Vasco U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.58

Vasco U17 attack 1.73 + Palmeiras U17 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Palmeiras U17 scores more
65%
level
18%
Vasco U17 scores more
18%

Palmeiras U17 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Palmeiras U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 88% of Palmeiras U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Palmeiras U17 have scored in 12 games running
  • 79% of Vasco U17’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 81% of Palmeiras U17’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
DLLWW
U17
LLDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Palmeiras U17 host Vasco U17

September 29, 2026: Palmeiras U17 take on Vasco U17 in Brasileiro U17. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.