Palmeiras U17 1–1 Fluminense U17: Result & Stats

Palmeiras U17

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fluminense U17

Unknown 21'

Wesley Nata 42'

8/6/2024

Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 6Academia de Futebol 2 Palmeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Palmeiras U1766%

×Draw18%

Fluminense U1716%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palmeiras U17Expected goals in this matchFluminense U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.18

Palmeiras U17

2.54

Fluminense U17

1.18

Palmeiras U17 creates 115% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

3.57

creates per match

1.50

0.86

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Palmeiras U17

3.57

Fluminense U17

1.50

allows per match

Palmeiras U17

0.86

Fluminense U17

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palmeiras U17+0.00on par

Fluminense U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U17 ↓

Fluminense U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Palmeiras U17 or draw

84%

Palmeiras U17 or Fluminense U17

82%

Draw or Fluminense U17

34%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U17 wins by 2+

45%

Fluminense U17 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Palmeiras U17 1+ goals

92%

Palmeiras U17 2+ goals

72%

Palmeiras U17 3+ goals

46%

Fluminense U17 1+ goals

69%

Fluminense U17 2+ goals

33%

Fluminense U17 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U17 (draw refunded)

81%

Fluminense U17 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U17 at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Fluminense U17 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U17 attack 3.57 + Fluminense U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.54

Fluminense U17 attack 1.50 + Palmeiras U17 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Palmeiras U17 scores more

66%

level

18%

Fluminense U17 scores more

16%

Palmeiras U17 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Palmeiras U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

42'

Wesley Nata

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff