Palmeiras U17 1–2 Flamengo RJ U17: Result & Stats

Palmeiras U17

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Flamengo RJ U17

7/14/2026

Brasileiro U17 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Palmeiras U1765%

×Draw18%

Flamengo RJ U1717%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palmeiras U17Expected goals in this matchFlamengo RJ U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.21

Palmeiras U17

2.50

Flamengo RJ U17

1.21

Palmeiras U17 creates 107% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

3.57

creates per match

1.56

0.86

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Palmeiras U17

3.57

Flamengo RJ U17

1.56

allows per match

Palmeiras U17

0.86

Flamengo RJ U17

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palmeiras U17+0.00on par

Flamengo RJ U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U17 ↓

Flamengo RJ U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Palmeiras U17 or draw

83%

Palmeiras U17 or Flamengo RJ U17

82%

Draw or Flamengo RJ U17

35%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U17 wins by 2+

43%

Flamengo RJ U17 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Palmeiras U17 1+ goals

92%

Palmeiras U17 2+ goals

71%

Palmeiras U17 3+ goals

45%

Flamengo RJ U17 1+ goals

70%

Flamengo RJ U17 2+ goals

34%

Flamengo RJ U17 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U17 (draw refunded)

79%

Flamengo RJ U17 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U17 at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Flamengo RJ U17 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U17 attack 3.57 + Flamengo RJ U17 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.50

Flamengo RJ U17 attack 1.56 + Palmeiras U17 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Palmeiras U17 scores more

65%

level

18%

Flamengo RJ U17 scores more

17%

Palmeiras U17 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Palmeiras U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff