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Palmeiras U17 vs Corinthians U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Palmeiras U17
Palmeiras U17advanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Corinthians U17
Corinthians U17
M. Dourado 63', 30'
E. Bele 2'
Luiz Fernando 36'
9/24/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Quarter-finalsAcademia de Futebol 2 Palmeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Palmeiras U1765%
×Draw18%
Corinthians U1717%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras U17
2.54
Corinthians U17
1.24

Palmeiras U17 creates 105% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

creates per match

Palmeiras U17
3.57
Corinthians U17
1.61

allows per match

Palmeiras U17
0.86
Corinthians U17
1.50

finishing

Palmeiras U17+0.00on par
Corinthians U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U17 ↓

Corinthians U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Palmeiras U17 or draw
83%
Palmeiras U17 or Corinthians U17
82%
Draw or Corinthians U17
35%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U17 wins by 2+
44%
Corinthians U17 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Palmeiras U17 1+ goals
92%
Palmeiras U17 2+ goals
72%
Palmeiras U17 3+ goals
46%
Corinthians U17 1+ goals
71%
Corinthians U17 2+ goals
35%
Corinthians U17 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U17 (draw refunded)
79%
Corinthians U17 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U17 at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Corinthians U17 away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U17 attack 3.57 + Corinthians U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.54

Corinthians U17 attack 1.61 + Palmeiras U17 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Palmeiras U17 scores more
65%
level
18%
Corinthians U17 scores more
17%

Palmeiras U17 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Palmeiras U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
E. Bele
30'
M. Dourado
36'
Luiz Fernando
63'
M. Dourado
90+2'
Lorenzo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palmeiras U17 vs Corinthians U17

Palmeiras U17 beat Corinthians U17 3-1 in Brasileiro U17 on September 24, 2024.

Goals: E. Bele (2'), M. Dourado (30', 63'), Luiz Fernando (36').

The match was played at Academia de Futebol 2 Palmeiras in São Paulo, São Paulo.