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Palmeiras U17 vs Bahia U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Palmeiras U17
Palmeiras U17
FT
4 – 0
Bahia U17
Bahia U17
8/14/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 7Academia de Futebol 2 Palmeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Palmeiras U1780%
×Draw13%
Bahia U177%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras U17
2.87
Bahia U17
0.77

Palmeiras U17 creates 273% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

creates per match

Palmeiras U17
3.57
Bahia U17
0.67

allows per match

Palmeiras U17
0.86
Bahia U17
2.17

finishing

Palmeiras U17+0.00on par
Bahia U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 70Under: 3070%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U17 ↓

Bahia U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Palmeiras U17 or draw
93%
Palmeiras U17 or Bahia U17
87%
Draw or Bahia U17
20%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U17 wins by 2+
60%
Bahia U17 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Palmeiras U17 1+ goals
94%
Palmeiras U17 2+ goals
77%
Palmeiras U17 3+ goals
53%
Bahia U17 1+ goals
54%
Bahia U17 2+ goals
18%
Bahia U17 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U17 (draw refunded)
92%
Bahia U17 (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U17 at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Bahia U17 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U17 attack 3.57 + Bahia U17 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.87

Bahia U17 attack 0.67 + Palmeiras U17 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Palmeiras U17 scores more
80%
level
13%
Bahia U17 scores more
7%

Palmeiras U17 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Palmeiras U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palmeiras U17 vs Bahia U17

Palmeiras U17 beat Bahia U17 4-0 in Brasileiro U17 on August 14, 2024.

The match was played at Academia de Futebol 2 Palmeiras in São Paulo, São Paulo.