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Palmas vs Tupynambás — Serie D 2018

Palmas
Palmas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tupynambás
Tupynambás
9/26/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 2Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Palmas26%
×Draw27%
Tupynambás47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmas
0.98
Tupynambás
1.43

Tupynambás creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

creates per match

Palmas
0.59
Tupynambás
1.50

allows per match

Palmas
1.35
Tupynambás
1.38

finishing

Palmas+0.00on par
Tupynambás+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmas ↓

Tupynambás →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Palmas or draw
53%
Palmas or Tupynambás
73%
Draw or Tupynambás
74%

Winning margin

Palmas wins by 2+
9%
Tupynambás wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Palmas 1+ goals
62%
Palmas 2+ goals
26%
Palmas 3+ goals
8%
Tupynambás 1+ goals
76%
Tupynambás 2+ goals
42%
Tupynambás 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Palmas (draw refunded)
35%
Tupynambás (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmas at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Tupynambás away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmas attack 0.59 + Tupynambás defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.98

Tupynambás attack 1.50 + Palmas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Palmas scores more
26%
level
27%
Tupynambás scores more
47%

Tupynambás at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tupynambás will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Palmas 0–2 Tupynambás

Tupynambás beat Palmas 2-0 in Serie D on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos in Palmas, Tocantins.