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Palmas vs Tocantinópolis — Serie D 2018

Palmas
Palmas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tocantinópolis
Tocantinópolis
8/7/2021Serie DSerie D · Round 10Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Palmas41%
×Draw27%
Tocantinópolis33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmas
1.36
Tocantinópolis
1.19

Palmas creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 46 away

creates per match

Palmas
0.59
Tocantinópolis
1.02

allows per match

Palmas
1.35
Tocantinópolis
2.13

finishing

Palmas+0.00on par
Tocantinópolis+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmas ↓

Tocantinópolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Palmas or draw
67%
Palmas or Tocantinópolis
73%
Draw or Tocantinópolis
59%

Winning margin

Palmas wins by 2+
19%
Tocantinópolis wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Palmas 1+ goals
74%
Palmas 2+ goals
39%
Palmas 3+ goals
16%
Tocantinópolis 1+ goals
70%
Tocantinópolis 2+ goals
33%
Tocantinópolis 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Palmas (draw refunded)
55%
Tocantinópolis (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmas at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Tocantinópolis away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.13 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmas attack 0.59 + Tocantinópolis defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tocantinópolis attack 1.02 + Palmas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Palmas scores more
41%
level
27%
Tocantinópolis scores more
33%

Palmas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Palmas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palmas vs Tocantinópolis

Palmas beat Tocantinópolis 2-1 in Serie D on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos in Palmas, Tocantins.