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Palmas vs Sinop Fc — Serie D 2018

Palmas
Palmas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sinop Fc
Sinop Fc
5/18/2019Serie DSerie D · Round 3Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos (Palmas, Tocantins)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Palmas29%
×Draw29%
Sinop Fc42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmas
0.98
Sinop Fc
1.24

Sinop Fc creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

creates per match

Palmas
0.59
Sinop Fc
1.13

allows per match

Palmas
1.35
Sinop Fc
1.38

finishing

Palmas+0.00on par
Sinop Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmas ↓

Sinop Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Palmas or draw
58%
Palmas or Sinop Fc
71%
Draw or Sinop Fc
71%

Winning margin

Palmas wins by 2+
11%
Sinop Fc wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Palmas 1+ goals
62%
Palmas 2+ goals
26%
Palmas 3+ goals
8%
Sinop Fc 1+ goals
71%
Sinop Fc 2+ goals
35%
Sinop Fc 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Palmas (draw refunded)
41%
Sinop Fc (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmas at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Sinop Fc away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmas attack 0.59 + Sinop Fc defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.98

Sinop Fc attack 1.13 + Palmas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Palmas scores more
29%
level
29%
Sinop Fc scores more
42%

Sinop Fc at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sinop Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Palmas 1–1 Sinop Fc

Palmas and Sinop Fc drew 1-1 in Serie D on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos (Palmas, Tocantins).