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Palmas vs Moto Club — Serie D 2018

Palmas
Palmas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Moto Club
Moto Club
7/24/2021Serie DSerie D · Round 8Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Palmas31%
×Draw28%
Moto Club41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmas
1.08
Moto Club
1.28

Moto Club creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

creates per match

Palmas
0.59
Moto Club
1.21

allows per match

Palmas
1.35
Moto Club
1.57

finishing

Palmas+0.00on par
Moto Club+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmas ↓

Moto Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Palmas or draw
59%
Palmas or Moto Club
72%
Draw or Moto Club
69%

Winning margin

Palmas wins by 2+
12%
Moto Club wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Palmas 1+ goals
66%
Palmas 2+ goals
29%
Palmas 3+ goals
10%
Moto Club 1+ goals
72%
Moto Club 2+ goals
37%
Moto Club 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Palmas (draw refunded)
43%
Moto Club (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmas at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Moto Club away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmas attack 0.59 + Moto Club defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.08

Moto Club attack 1.21 + Palmas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Palmas scores more
31%
level
28%
Moto Club scores more
41%

Moto Club at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Moto Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palmas vs Moto Club

Palmas beat Moto Club 2-1 in Serie D on July 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos in Palmas, Tocantins.