Palmas 1–2 Juventude MA: Result & Stats | Serie D

Palmas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Juventude MA

6/12/2021

Serie D · Round 2Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Palmas27%

×Draw30%

Juventude MA43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalmasExpected goals in this matchJuventude MA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.18

Palmas

0.86

Juventude MA

1.18

Juventude MA creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

0.59

creates per match

1.00

1.35

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Palmas

0.59

Juventude MA

1.00

allows per match

Palmas

1.35

Juventude MA

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palmas+0.00on par

Juventude MA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmas ↓

Juventude MA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Palmas or draw

57%

Palmas or Juventude MA

70%

Draw or Juventude MA

73%

Winning margin

Palmas wins by 2+

9%

Juventude MA wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Palmas 1+ goals

58%

Palmas 2+ goals

21%

Palmas 3+ goals

6%

Juventude MA 1+ goals

69%

Juventude MA 2+ goals

33%

Juventude MA 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Palmas (draw refunded)

38%

Juventude MA (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmas at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Juventude MA away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmas attack 0.59 + Juventude MA defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.86

Juventude MA attack 1.00 + Palmas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Palmas scores more

27%

level

30%

Juventude MA scores more

43%

Juventude MA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Juventude MA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff