Palmas 1–2 Caldense: Result & Stats | Serie D

Palmas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Caldense

10/21/2020

Serie D · Round 8Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Palmas33%

×Draw28%

Caldense39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalmasExpected goals in this matchCaldense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.25

Palmas

1.13

Caldense

1.25

Caldense creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 29 away

0.59

creates per match

1.14

1.35

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Palmas

0.59

Caldense

1.14

allows per match

Palmas

1.35

Caldense

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palmas+0.00on par

Caldense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmas ↓

Caldense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Palmas or draw

61%

Palmas or Caldense

72%

Draw or Caldense

67%

Winning margin

Palmas wins by 2+

13%

Caldense wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Palmas 1+ goals

68%

Palmas 2+ goals

31%

Palmas 3+ goals

11%

Caldense 1+ goals

71%

Caldense 2+ goals

36%

Caldense 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Palmas (draw refunded)

46%

Caldense (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmas at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Caldense away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmas attack 0.59 + Caldense defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.13

Caldense attack 1.14 + Palmas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Palmas scores more

33%

level

28%

Caldense scores more

39%

Caldense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Caldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff