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Palmas vs Brasiliense — Serie D 2018

Palmas
Palmas
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Brasiliense
Brasiliense
11/1/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 10Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Palmas20%
×Draw29%
Brasiliense52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmas
0.70
Brasiliense
1.32

Brasiliense creates 89% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 59 away

creates per match

Palmas
0.59
Brasiliense
1.29

allows per match

Palmas
1.35
Brasiliense
0.80

finishing

Palmas+0.00on par
Brasiliense+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmas ↓

Brasiliense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–118%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Palmas or draw
48%
Palmas or Brasiliense
71%
Draw or Brasiliense
80%

Winning margin

Palmas wins by 2+
6%
Brasiliense wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Palmas 1+ goals
50%
Palmas 2+ goals
16%
Palmas 3+ goals
3%
Brasiliense 1+ goals
73%
Brasiliense 2+ goals
38%
Brasiliense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Palmas (draw refunded)
28%
Brasiliense (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmas at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Brasiliense away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.80 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmas attack 0.59 + Brasiliense defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.70

Brasiliense attack 1.29 + Palmas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Palmas scores more
20%
level
29%
Brasiliense scores more
52%

Brasiliense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brasiliense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Palmas 0–3 Brasiliense

Brasiliense beat Palmas 3-0 in Serie D on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nílton Santos in Palmas, Tocantins.