Palestino 0–0 Gremio: Result & Stats

Palestino

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gremio

4/30/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 3Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Palestino25%

×Draw31%

Gremio44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalestinoExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.15

Palestino

0.78

Gremio

1.15

Gremio creates 47% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

0.71

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Palestino

0.71

Gremio

1.00

allows per match

Palestino

1.29

Gremio

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palestino+0.00on par

Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–117%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Palestino or draw

56%

Palestino or Gremio

69%

Draw or Gremio

75%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+

8%

Gremio wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals

54%

Palestino 2+ goals

18%

Palestino 3+ goals

4%

Gremio 1+ goals

68%

Gremio 2+ goals

32%

Gremio 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)

36%

Gremio (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 0.71 + Gremio defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Gremio attack 1.00 + Palestino defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Palestino scores more

25%

level

31%

Gremio scores more

44%

Gremio at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Weverton

Gremio · G

7.9

Match Events

4'

15'

28'

31'

46'

Arthur Melo← Dodi

46'

J. Enamorado← Willian

46'

E. Noriega← L. Perez

71'

M. Braithwaite← Tete

71'

Riquelme← Caio Paulista

76'

F. Meza← N. Da Silva

76'

R. Fernandez← B. Carrasco

76'

D. Salgado← F. T. Montes Romero

79'

Ronnie Fernández

81'

Carlos ViníciusGoal cancelled

85'

G. Tapia Paez← C. Munder

87'

Fernando Meza

89'

Carlos Vinícius

90'

Gabriel MecPenalty cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalestinoGremio

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots10

0.38Expected Goals (xG)1.44

2Corners1

19Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots10

3On Target2

5Off Target5

2Blocked3

4Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

282Total Passes393

200Accurate Passes325

71%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0.54Goals Prevented0.54

Discipline

19Fouls8

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0