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Palestino vs D. Melipilla — Primera División 2018

Palestino
Palestino
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
M. Dávila 33'
B. Carrasco 23', 13' (pen)
G. Sosa 39'
9/15/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 21Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Palestino54%
×Draw23%
D. Melipilla23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palestino
1.82
D. Melipilla
1.11

Palestino creates 64% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 16 away

creates per match

Palestino
1.77
D. Melipilla
1.00

allows per match

Palestino
1.23
D. Melipilla
1.88

finishing

Palestino+0.00on par
D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

D. Melipilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Palestino or draw
77%
Palestino or D. Melipilla
77%
Draw or D. Melipilla
46%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+
30%
D. Melipilla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals
84%
Palestino 2+ goals
54%
Palestino 3+ goals
27%
D. Melipilla 1+ goals
67%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
30%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)
70%
D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 1.77 + D. Melipilla defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.82

D. Melipilla attack 1.00 + Palestino defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Palestino scores more
54%
level
23%
D. Melipilla scores more
23%

Palestino at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Palestino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
B. CarrascoPalestinoPalestino · M
8.9

Match Events

-5'
Nelson Sepúlveda
11'
Jonathan BenítezPenalty cancelled
13'
B. CarrascoPenalty
23'
B. Carrasco↳ J. Benítez
33'
M. Dávila↳ G. Soto
39'
G. Sosa↳ C. Suárez
40'
Alejandro CamargoGoal cancelled
46'
N. Clavería← M. Díaz
46'
K. Rojas← A. Astudillo
46'
J. Ortiz← B. Lagos
61'
M. Cavalleri← J. Benítez
62'
N. Sepúlveda← M. Vidangossy
70'
B. Garrido← C. Suárez
71'
J. Sánchez← B. Barticciotto
80'
Kevin Rojas
89'
S. Cabrera← B. Carrasco
90+1'
Sebastián Cabrera
90+2'
Gonzalo Sosa

Possession

48%Palestino

Shots

15Palestino

Pass accuracy

50%Palestino

Statistics

PalestinoD.
Overview
48%Possession52%
15Total Shots17
6Corners7
10Fouls6
Shots
15Total Shots17
7On Target3
5Off Target9
3Blocked5
11Inside Box11
4Outside Box6
Passing
48%Possession52%
352Total Passes384
258Accurate Passes286
73%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls6
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Palestino vs D. Melipilla

Palestino beat D. Melipilla 3-1 in Primera División on September 15, 2021.

Goals: B. Carrasco (13' pen, 23'), M. Dávila (33'), G. Sosa (39').

D. Melipilla controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna in Santiago de Chile.