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Palestino vs Barnechea — Copa Chile 2019

Palestino
Palestinoadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barnechea
Barnechea
6/30/2024Copa ChileCopa Chile · Regional Quarter-finalsEstadio Municipal de La Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Palestino48%
×Draw20%
Barnechea33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palestino
2.37
Barnechea
1.95

Palestino creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Palestino
2.62
Barnechea
1.67

allows per match

Palestino
2.23
Barnechea
2.11

finishing

Palestino+0.00on par
Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestino ↓

Barnechea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Palestino or draw
67%
Palestino or Barnechea
80%
Draw or Barnechea
52%

Winning margin

Palestino wins by 2+
29%
Barnechea wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Palestino 1+ goals
91%
Palestino 2+ goals
68%
Palestino 3+ goals
42%
Barnechea 1+ goals
86%
Barnechea 2+ goals
58%
Barnechea 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Palestino (draw refunded)
59%
Barnechea (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestino at home — creates 2.62, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestino attack 2.62 + Barnechea defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.37

Barnechea attack 1.67 + Palestino defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Palestino scores more
48%
level
20%
Barnechea scores more
33%

Palestino at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Palestino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palestino vs Barnechea

Palestino beat Barnechea 3-0 in Copa Chile on June 30, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna in Santiago de Chile.