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Palestine vs Uzbekistan — Friendlies 2026

Palestine
Palestine
FT
0 – 1
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan
1/7/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Palestine34%
×Draw29%
Uzbekistan37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palestine
1.10
Uzbekistan
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Palestine
0.67
Uzbekistan
0.62

allows per match

Palestine
1.67
Uzbekistan
1.54

finishing

Palestine+0.00on par
Uzbekistan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestine ↓

Uzbekistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Palestine or draw
63%
Palestine or Uzbekistan
71%
Draw or Uzbekistan
66%

Winning margin

Palestine wins by 2+
14%
Uzbekistan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Palestine 1+ goals
67%
Palestine 2+ goals
30%
Palestine 3+ goals
10%
Uzbekistan 1+ goals
68%
Uzbekistan 2+ goals
32%
Uzbekistan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Palestine (draw refunded)
48%
Uzbekistan (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestine at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Uzbekistan away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestine attack 0.67 + Uzbekistan defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.10

Uzbekistan attack 0.62 + Palestine defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Palestine scores more
34%
level
29%
Uzbekistan scores more
37%

Uzbekistan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Uzbekistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Palestine 0–1 Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan beat Palestine 1-0 in Friendlies on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium in Doha.