Palestine 0–0 Jordan: Result & Stats | Asian Cup

Palestine

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jordan

1/15/2019

Asian Cup · Group Stage - 3Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Palestine8%

×Draw24%

Jordan68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalestineExpected goals in this matchJordan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.36

1.56

Palestine

0.36

Jordan

1.56

Jordan creates 333% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

0.33

creates per match

1.80

1.33

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

Palestine

0.33

Jordan

1.80

allows per match

Palestine

1.33

Jordan

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palestine+0.00on par

Jordan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No76
Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palestine ↓

Jordan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–123%

0–218%

0–39%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–01%

2–11%

2–21%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (23%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Palestine or draw

32%

Palestine or Jordan

76%

Draw or Jordan

92%

Winning margin

Palestine wins by 2+

1%

Jordan wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Palestine 1+ goals

30%

Palestine 2+ goals

5%

Palestine 3+ goals

1%

Jordan 1+ goals

79%

Jordan 2+ goals

46%

Jordan 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Palestine (draw refunded)

11%

Jordan (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palestine at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Jordan away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palestine attack 0.33 + Jordan defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.36

Jordan attack 1.80 + Palestine defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Palestine scores more

8%

level

24%

Jordan scores more

68%

Jordan at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Jordan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

Salem Mahmoud Suleim

19'

Tamer Seyam

25'

Saeed Murjan

55'

Anas Bani Yaseen

62'

Khaled Salem← Yasir Pinto

63'

Odai Khadr← Saeed Al Murjan

79'

Nazmi Albadawi← Muhamad Darwish

82'

Saleh Rateb← Ahmed Al-Ersan

88'

Mahmoud Wadi

88'

Alexis Norambuena← Mohammed Bassim

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PalestineJordan

Overview

31%Possession69%

5Total Shots7

4Corners7

17Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots7

3On Target3

2Off Target4

Passing

31%Possession69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3