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Palermo vs Sassuolo — Serie B 2018

Palermo
Palermo
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
4/6/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 32Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Palermo37%
×Draw25%
Sassuolo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palermo
1.37
Sassuolo
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 19 away

creates per match

Palermo
1.62
Sassuolo
1.84

allows per match

Palermo
0.95
Sassuolo
1.11

finishing

Palermo+0.00on par
Sassuolo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Sassuolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Palermo or draw
62%
Palermo or Sassuolo
75%
Draw or Sassuolo
63%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+
17%
Sassuolo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals
75%
Palermo 2+ goals
40%
Palermo 3+ goals
16%
Sassuolo 1+ goals
75%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
41%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)
49%
Sassuolo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.95 · 97 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.62 + Sassuolo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sassuolo attack 1.84 + Palermo defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Palermo scores more
37%
level
25%
Sassuolo scores more
38%

Sassuolo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Palermo vs Sassuolo

Palermo beat Sassuolo 5-3 in Serie B on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Palermo.