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Palermo vs Monza — Serie B 2018

Palermo
Palermo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Monza
Monza
P. Azzi 90'
A. Izzo 50'
D. Mota 39'
10/28/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 10Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Palermo49%
×Draw24%
Monza27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palermo
1.67
Monza
1.16

Palermo creates 44% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Palermo
2.15
Monza
1.25

allows per match

Palermo
1.06
Monza
1.18

finishing

Palermo+0.15scores more
Monza+0.50scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Monza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Palermo or draw
73%
Palermo or Monza
76%
Draw or Monza
51%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+
26%
Monza wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals
81%
Palermo 2+ goals
50%
Palermo 3+ goals
23%
Monza 1+ goals
69%
Monza 2+ goals
32%
Monza 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)
65%
Monza (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.06 · 10 matches

Monza away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.18 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 2.15 + Monza defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.67

Monza attack 1.25 + Palermo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Palermo scores more
49%
level
24%
Monza scores more
27%

Palermo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
P. AzziMonzaMonza · M
9.5

Match Events

30'
Keita Baldé
39'
D. Mota↳ P. Obiang
50'
A. Izzo↳ P. Azzi
55'
A. Palumbo← C. Gomes
61'
A. Colpani← K. Balde
64'
M. Brunori← J. Le Douaron
64'
G. Corona← J. Segre
74'
Matteo Brunori
74'
Armando Izzo
77'
A. Vasic← T. Augello
77'
A. Blin← F. Ranocchia
80'
M. Maric← D. Mota
80'
F. Delli Carri← A. Izzo
82'
Samuele Birindelli
85'
A. Brorsson← P. Ciurria
85'
A. Carboni← S. Birindelli
90+4'
Luca Ravanelli
90'
P. Azzi↳ A. Colpani

Possession

53%Palermo

Shots

17Palermo

Pass accuracy

52%Palermo

Statistics

PalermoMonza
Overview
53%Possession47%
17Total Shots12
1.08Expected Goals (xG)2.27
6Corners6
5Fouls19
Shots
17Total Shots12
2On Target5
8Off Target2
7Blocked5
10Inside Box9
7Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
387Total Passes354
313Accurate Passes266
81%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
5Fouls19
1Yellow Cards4
0Offsides2

Palermo 0 – 3 Monza

Monza beat Palermo 3-0 in Serie B on October 28, 2025.

Goals: D. Mota (39'), A. Izzo (50'), P. Azzi (90').

Palermo controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Palermo.