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Palermo vs Livorno — Serie B 2018

Palermo
Palermo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Livorno
Livorno
12/15/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 16Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Palermo54%
×Draw25%
Livorno21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palermo
1.60
Livorno
0.90

Palermo creates 78% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 37 away

creates per match

Palermo
1.62
Livorno
0.84

allows per match

Palermo
0.95
Livorno
1.57

finishing

Palermo+0.00on par
Livorno+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Livorno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Palermo or draw
79%
Palermo or Livorno
75%
Draw or Livorno
46%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+
29%
Livorno wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals
80%
Palermo 2+ goals
47%
Palermo 3+ goals
22%
Livorno 1+ goals
59%
Livorno 2+ goals
23%
Livorno 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)
72%
Livorno (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.95 · 97 matches

Livorno away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.62 + Livorno defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Livorno attack 0.84 + Palermo defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Palermo scores more
54%
level
25%
Livorno scores more
21%

Palermo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Palermo 1–1 Livorno

Palermo and Livorno drew 1-1 in Serie B on December 15, 2018.

The match was played at Renzo Barbera in Palermo.