Palermo 1–0 Hellas Verona: Result & Stats | Serie B

Palermo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hellas Verona

I. Nestorovski 46'

4/8/2019

Serie B · Round 32Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Palermo45%

×Draw27%

Hellas Verona28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalermoExpected goals in this matchHellas Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.07

Palermo

1.42

Hellas Verona

1.07

Palermo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 20 away

1.59

creates per match

1.20

0.95

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Palermo

1.59

Hellas Verona

1.20

allows per match

Palermo

0.95

Hellas Verona

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palermo+0.00on par

Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Hellas Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Palermo or draw

72%

Palermo or Hellas Verona

73%

Draw or Hellas Verona

55%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+

22%

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals

76%

Palermo 2+ goals

41%

Palermo 3+ goals

17%

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

66%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

29%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)

61%

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.95 · 96 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.59 + Hellas Verona defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hellas Verona attack 1.20 + Palermo defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Palermo scores more

45%

level

27%

Hellas Verona scores more

28%

Palermo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Radosław Murawski

46'

I. Nestorovski↳ S. Moreo

56'

L. Henderson← D. Faraoni

64'

Samuel Gustafson

67'

Giampaolo Pazzini

67'

G. Pazzini← S. Di Carmine

78'

G. Puşcaş← S. Moreo

78'

Ryder Matos← A. Di Gaudio

80'

Ilija Nestorovski

82'

Giuseppe Bellusci

87'

R. Pirrello← A. Trajkovski

87'

A. Fiordilino← R. Murawski

90'

Giuseppe Bellusci

90'

Giuseppe Bellusci

90'

Paweł Dawidowicz

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PalermoHellas

Overview

47%Possession53%

20Total Shots7

5Corners4

21Fouls16

Shots

20Total Shots7

8On Target4

12Off Target3

Passing

47%Possession53%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

21Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards–

1Offsides0