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Palermo vs Cagliari — Serie B 2018

Palermo
Palermo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cagliari
Cagliari
12/18/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 18Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Palermo40%
×Draw29%
Cagliari31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palermo
1.20
Cagliari
1.02

Palermo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 21 away

creates per match

Palermo
1.59
Cagliari
1.10

allows per match

Palermo
0.95
Cagliari
0.81

finishing

Palermo+0.00on par
Cagliari+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Cagliari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Palermo or draw
69%
Palermo or Cagliari
71%
Draw or Cagliari
60%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+
17%
Cagliari wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals
70%
Palermo 2+ goals
34%
Palermo 3+ goals
12%
Cagliari 1+ goals
64%
Cagliari 2+ goals
27%
Cagliari 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)
56%
Cagliari (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.95 · 96 matches

Cagliari away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.59 + Cagliari defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.20

Cagliari attack 1.10 + Palermo defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Palermo scores more
40%
level
29%
Cagliari scores more
31%

Palermo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Palermo 2–1 Cagliari

Palermo beat Cagliari 2-1 in Serie B on December 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Palermo.