Palermo 1–1 Brescia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Palermo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brescia

I. Nestorovski 79'

L. Tremolada 90+2'

2/15/2019

Serie B · Round 24Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Palermo46%

×Draw26%

Brescia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalermoExpected goals in this matchBrescia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.05

Palermo

1.44

Brescia

1.05

Palermo creates 37% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 118 away

1.59

creates per match

1.16

0.95

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Palermo

1.59

Brescia

1.16

allows per match

Palermo

0.95

Brescia

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palermo+0.00on par

Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Brescia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Palermo or draw

72%

Palermo or Brescia

74%

Draw or Brescia

54%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+

22%

Brescia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals

76%

Palermo 2+ goals

42%

Palermo 3+ goals

18%

Brescia 1+ goals

65%

Brescia 2+ goals

28%

Brescia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)

63%

Brescia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.95 · 96 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.28 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.59 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.44

Brescia attack 1.16 + Palermo defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Palermo scores more

46%

level

26%

Brescia scores more

28%

Palermo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Ernesto Torregrossa

12'

D. Gastaldello← B. Martella

19'

César Falletti

64'

Andrea Rispoli

71'

Emanuele Ndoj

76'

I. Nestorovski← C. Falletti

79'

I. Nestorovski↳ A. Trajkovski

82'

Stefano Sabelli

82'

I. Chochev← M. Jajalo

83'

Alejandro Rodriguez← L. Morosini

84'

L. Tremolada← A. Cistana

90'

Luca Tremolada

90+3'

S. Moreo← N. Haas

90+2'

L. Tremolada↳ S. Sabelli

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PalermoBrescia

Overview

59%Possession41%

9Total Shots3

5Corners3

17Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots3

3On Target1

6Off Target2

Passing

59%Possession41%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1