Brescia 4–2 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Brescia

FT

4 – 2

HT: 4 – 2

Palermo

3/2/2024

Serie B · Round 28Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Brescia41%

×Draw26%

Palermo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BresciaExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.25

Brescia

1.43

Palermo

1.25

Brescia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 97 away

1.50

creates per match

1.32

1.17

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Brescia

1.50

Palermo

1.32

allows per match

Brescia

1.17

Palermo

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par

Palermo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Brescia or draw

67%

Brescia or Palermo

74%

Draw or Palermo

59%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+

20%

Palermo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals

76%

Brescia 2+ goals

42%

Brescia 3+ goals

17%

Palermo 1+ goals

71%

Palermo 2+ goals

36%

Palermo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)

56%

Palermo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 115 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.50 + Palermo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Palermo attack 1.32 + Brescia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Brescia scores more

41%

level

26%

Palermo scores more

33%

Brescia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff